Surprise: Innovators Prefer Android

The Nielsen chart below (sourced from Slashgear, Sept 1) shows that the further people are along the adoption curve the less sure they are about the operating system they want in their next smartphone (based on likely smartphone upgraders).   Only 7% of Innovators are unsure about what operating system they want …but 30% of Late Adopters are unsure.   That’s no surprise, though it may indicate opportunity for players to reshuffle their positions as the market matures.

What is surprising though, at least to me, is the bimodal pattern for Android preference.  I had assumed that the Android phone is perceived by consumers as “the poor man’s iPhone”, with user stereotypes in my mind similar to this piece…that could be summed up as Android: Cheesesteak, iOS: Sushi

But the Nielsen data at least partly contradicts this stereotype, which can be seen more clearly if you take out the “not sures” and base percentages on those who are sure.    Android preference increases as you move to the end of the adoption curve – to the later adopters – that’s  true.   But Android preference also pops up at the top of the curve, among those likely to be the first to adopt new technology.   Apple preference is relatively strongest…among Early Adopters and the Early Majority.

This may relate to a heated discussion on Stackoverflow about developer preference between the operating systems.     The original post and reported data suggest that Android preference is rising sharply among developers; that Android surpassed iOS preference around mid-year.   The many doubting comments point to the non-representativeness of the data (e.g., do iOS developers ask their questions on sites other than Stackoverflow?) and question what it means (e.g., do Android developers ask more questions on Stackoverflow due to the inferiority of Android documentation?)

But seeing two pieces of information from different sources (and contexts) pointing in the same direction makes me wonder…is Google in fact making headway against Apple at both the bottom and the top of the tech-savvy spectrum?

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